Georgia is Grappling with Two Crises and Expecting a Third

By Malkhaz Matsaberidze

Friday, December 27, 2024

With Georgia facing a deepening political and constitutional crisis, and an impending economic one, everyone's watching to see what happens next. The outcome depends on many uncertain factors.

Following the parliamentary elections of October 26, 2024, Georgia found itself in the throes of a severe political crisis that continues to deepen. The Georgian Dream announced election results and secured a fourth term for itself. However, the results were rejected by all opposition parties that had secured mandates. Despite a boycott called by the opposition parties, large-scale protests did not materialize in the next few weeks, and the Georgian Dream decided to finally settle accounts with its Western orientation. Irakli Kobakhidze, serving as Prime Minister, declared that negotiations with the European Union would be halted until 2028. The Georgian Dream's leaders may now regret this statement, as it was precisely the questioning of Western orientation that triggered mass protests, which the party has been unable to quell to this day. These protests are not led by political parties but are spontaneously organized by various groups. Moreover, the protests have spread beyond Tbilisi, encompassing virtually every city in Georgia.

The Georgian Dream party has failed to secure international recognition of the parliamentary election results. With the exception of Hungary and Slovakia, European Union countries are supporting the re-holding of elections in Georgia, suspending cooperation with the country, and moving towards imposing sanctions. The political crisis in the country is linked to a constitutional crisis. The Georgian Dream is accused of numerous violations of the constitution, including Article 78, which directly obliges the Georgian government to do everything in its power to integrate Georgia into the European Union and NATO.

The election of the president by the electoral college has proven to be devoid of real substance in Georgian reality. Public opinion polls at the time showed that the majority of respondents opposed the abolition of the direct election of the president by the people. As a result, we have a president elected by a single party, using its regional and parliamentary representatives. For those who question the legitimacy of the parliament elected in 2024, the president elected with its participation is also illegitimate. Consequently, the political crisis is deepening. The deepening political crisis, the wave of protests, and Georgia's growing isolation from the West are making an economic crisis in the country inevitable. This will negatively impact the situation of every ordinary citizen and will provide new impetus to the protest movement.

The Georgian Dream party anticipated the wave of protests following the elections and was well-prepared to deal with them. The Georgian Dream intended to suppress the protests through mass violence and proceeded to do so. This was a scenario tested in Russia and Belarus: intimidating the public through violence and quelling protests, ultimately establishing an authoritarian regime that would serve as a loyal satellite of Putin's Russia. Despite using violence, the Georgian Dream failed to stop the protests. Only after a phone call from French President Macron to Bidzina Ivanishvili did the overt violence by police forces cease. However, we cannot say that the Georgian Dream has abandoned the use of force to suppress protests.

The Georgian Dream party constantly talks about an alternative scenario, which they refer to as an attempt to organize a so-called 'Maidan'. This is a change of power 'through revolution.' They accuse the West, without any specifics, of organizing this, linking it to the so-called 'globalist party.' However, the protests have been extremely peaceful, and as long as the police or special forces do not confront the people gathered on Rustaveli Avenue, there are no acts of violence.

Opposition political parties and participants in the protests are demanding the immediate release of those arrested during the demonstrations and the holding of new parliamentary elections. It must be said that this would be the optimal and normal way out of the current crisis. Holding new elections is not something extraordinary in a democratic country, and especially not in a parliamentary republic like Georgia is supposed to be.

The Georgian Dream party is not even considering re-holding parliamentary elections in the current situation. This is understandable, as the rules for conducting elections would have to be changed, and the electoral administration would have to be renewed. For the Georgian Dream, this would be an acknowledgment of election fraud, and in the event of new elections, even crossing the 5% electoral threshold could be questionable. So, what does this mean? Will the Georgian Dream resume the use of force to suppress the protests? If violence intensifies, will this lead to a backlash, and civil unrest? Some believe that this is a backup Russian scenario for Georgia if the Georgian Dream government fails to suppress the protests.

Despite the current circumstances, we cannot rule out the possibility of the Georgian Dream, or Bidzina Ivanishvili, agreeing to hold new elections. Certain conditions have been outlined under which the Georgian Dream would be forced to agree to elections. On the one hand, this includes a further escalation of protests and, on the other, strong pressure from the West. The West's position is linked to the election of a new US president. The Georgian Dream hopes to find favor with President Trump and for the talk of sanctions to cease. They are even more hopeful that the protest wave will subside, especially with the New Year approaching.