Watching presidential hopefuls jump procedural hoops offers a chance to size up their electoral fitness. The most athletic showings in the Central Election Commission’s registration process offer some unexpected suggestions of what may be the competition to come.

Unsurprisingly, the marginal presidential would-bes who dredged up little more than the required minimum of 50 000 signatures to register their candidacy (and, inevitably, saw many of those deemed invalid) were stricken off the list of contenders. Some will have a chance to offer more signatures, but the field has effectively been pared down to those with proven organizational capacity.

What is surprising is the vigorous show put forward by Badri Patarkatsishvili and his allies within the country. The wealthy Imedi founder, wanted for questioning on his role in the purported November 7 coup attempt, is now unequivocally in the race.

According to the Regnum news agency, Patarkatsishvili submitted a grand total of over 202 000 signatures, bested only by incumbent candidate Mikheil Saakashvili’s 205 000 signatures.

Patarkatsishvili’s wealth of signatures is not, of course, a reflection of actual support, but it does imply a well-funded and organized campaign to come. He still must contend with the logistical inconvenience of being effectively exiled from the country. Speculation will continue on whether he might back another candidate, as he suggested he may when first announcing his candidacy; his prominence as the authorities’ favored bugbear means other opposition candidates will need to consider carefully whether they want to be seen as cooperating with the oligarch.

The nine-party opposition coalition, meanwhile, mustered a comparatively paltry 63 000 signatures in support of joint candidate Levan Gachechiladze. Two weeks ago, coalition members promised they would bury the Central Election Commission under sheets and sheets of signatures. Their failure to live up to the boasts as neatly as other non-marginal candidates, despite Gachechiladze’s apparent popularity, can only raise doubts as to that campaign’s viability in practical terms.

With few preliminary contests of strength before the January 5 election, candidates should leap on occasions like the official registration to demonstrate their viability—something particularly crucial for the opposition field as Saakashvili works to portray his reelection as inevitable.