Deadlock in Abkhazia and South Ossetia

Polish political analyst and specialist in South Caucasus and Central Asian issues Tomasz Sikorski thinks that in 2009 the South Caucasus avoided the escalation of conflicts in the region despite the serious tensions between Georgia on one side and Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region, supported by Russia, on the other. He also suggests that it was a positive step forYerevan and Ankara to sign the protocols on possible reconciliation.

There are some moves in resolving the Karabakh conflict, however this process is very long and complicated. Sikorski also highlighted the positive issues emerging in Georgia, such as constitutional reform and the direct elections of the Tbilisi Mayor. He thinks however that no progress is noticeable in the resolution of the Abkhazian and South Ossetian problems. The international community does not recognise them, whereas Russia does. There is deadlock and no solution is visible.

Neither UN nor OSCE observers have been allowed into the conflict zones. The disputed territories are closed to the EU observer mission as well. All this creates a 'zugzwang' situation.