Fear has big eyes

Fear has big eyes. Georgian analysts, journalists and ordinary people are trying to guess how events will develop after the local elections are held on May 30. A neighbor of mine, an old man with big experience stopped me on the street recently and told me his version of developments with the real Georgian enthusiasm and assurance that he was right. I argued but he kept repeating his version trying to convince me that he was right. I want to share his concern with my readers because his ideas were alarming and looked very much like the hoax shown on Imedi TV a month and a half ago. This is what he said.

The National Movement can easily win elections without rigging and further manipulations. But their activists particularly in the regions will do their best to receive the overwhelming victory. So that massive manipulations will take place which will be visible after the votes are counted. This will cause indignation in the population and, of course, the opposition. The opposition will start protest rallies, which could evolve into civil disobedience and possibly civil unrest could follow. The provocateurs from the Russian supported circles could aggravate the situation further and this would trigger the possibility of Russian forces close to the capital moving towards Tbilisi. Eventually this could end up in a full scale occupation of Georgia by Russian forces and installing their pro Russian leadership.

It was a scary scenario which I objected to saying that international community wouldn’t allow Moscow doing so. The response was very cynical. Russians influenced the decision of Bucharest NATO Summit in April 2009 refusing to grant MAP to Georgia and Ukraine which in fact untied the hands of the Kremlin enabling them to launch an attack on Tbilisi. The provocations could have been different, and if it hadn’t happened on August 8 it could have happened later and the cause could be just fireworks somewhere at a wedding. Russians were ready to launch the attack anyway. The next Russian victory were the elections in Ukraine which were predestined for the victory of pro Russian forces there as Moscow had undertaken many subversive actions and invested significant money in Ukraine. Next came the Kyrgizistan events, where clearly pro Russian forces came to power and finally the controversial death of the Polish President. In all these events there are Russian connections. Even the plane crash took place in Russia not somewhere else.

Could you name any substantial steps the West has taken against Russia? - asked my neighbor? Yes, Sarkozi brokered a cease fire plan and that agreement stopped the war – I responded. Look at the results – he answered. We have two separatist controlled territories, Russia has recognized those countries. This is the final result so far. Georgian sovereignty is violated and it looks like the world could cope with them. It’s a scary scenario, but isn’t it possible? Asked my neighbor and went on his way.