Turkey and South Caucasus: Polish analyst's view

Polish political analyst Lukasz Racinski, says that the normalisation of Turkish–Armenian relations has been postponed. He thinks that Russia has taken ‘necessary steps for this’. Moscow has no interest at all in Armenian–Turkish relations being regulated as The Kremlin would prefer to keep the status quo, which is the most beneficial situation for Moscow. There is also the Azeri factor to consider, as Azerbaijan is not at all happy at the prospect of Turkish–Armenian relations thawing.

Racinski thinks that the South Caucasus has fallen down the list of priorities in the Turkish foreign policy system. He says that the West is Turkey's current priority, followed by the Middle East and then the Balkan countries. Only then does the South Caucasus appear.

Racinski states that the regulating of Armenian-Turkish relations depends very much on regulating the Karabakh conflict. These two issues are closely connected. However he thinks that Russia retains the key role in resolving the Karabakh conflict and Ankara does not posses significant levers to force Russia to do so. As has been said, Russia wants to retain the status quo in Karabakh too to keep Armenia as its ally and a solid base for the Russian armed forces in the region.