November: the hottest month

Over recent years Georgia has worked out a very specific political climate, with the hottest month of the year proving to be November. This November, just seven years ago began the mass protest rallies which culminated in the Rose Revolution. In 2007 opposition protest rallies culminating in the clashes between the opposition and police forces eventually led to the President’s resignation and snap elections. Again this November there are some protest rallies planned, although it is premature to say whether they will have the same dramatic importance as previous ones. The opposition plans to hold rallies in November and presumably rose administration will celebrate the 7th anniversary of rose revolution in November. The first off the block will be the National Forum, which submitted to parliament together with other seven political parties, their proposal to amend the elections code. According to the authors, these amendments should facilitate the transparency and fairness of the forthcoming (in two years) parliamentary and then presidential elections. Forum promised to start protests if the ruling power ignored the proposed negotiations; however the ruling administration has expressed its readiness to start negotiations over the elections code. It is too early to say how successful these negotiations will be, however the beginning is satisfactory for both sides.

Next is the 7th Anniversary of the Rose Revolution 7th on November 23, immediately after which the Georgian party is convening its foundation conference. This party made rather bold and optimistic statements at their announcement ceremony some weeks ago, yet its action plan is not yet known and we have no information whether they plan to change this authority through elections or by using more radical means. Former ombudsman and one of the leaders of the Georgian party Sozar Subari claims that all means used will be legal and constitutionally acceptable.

Moving on, on the following day, November 25 a public assembly will be convened run by public representatives although many see former chair of parliament, Nino Burjanadze at its head. All these preparations and future plans of the opposition have been challenged with the results of recent IRI polling results, according to which the population is happy with the current administration. The opposition however does not trust the poll, and claims that protest is a means to show the real situation in the country. So everything will be decided when the people appear on the streets; how many protesters turn out, the reaction of both sides and their further moves will depend on quantity of protesters.