The beginning of the end

Many analysts around the world who are reasonably familiar with Russian modern history predict the collapse of the Russian empire and think that the current situation in the country signifies the beginning of the end of it.

The Russian empire, since its very beginning, was growing, conquering more and more lands around it and in fact it achieved the peak of its growth, strength and importance after the WW2 under the leadership of comrade Stalin. It was the biggest country in the world under the name of the Soviet Union and, as well as its own territories, it exercised its domineering position in eastern Europe, China, Mongolia and some other parts of the world. The west then created NATO to try and counter balance the enormous growing influence of the Soviet Union and the so called era of cold war, between the Russian empire and the rest of the civilized world, started.

Slowly and painfully, the dissolution of this empire has begun. The process was dramatic, sometimes even tragic, which ended up finally in the collapse of the soviet empire at the beginning of the 1990s. At the beginning of the 21st century, new President of the Russian Federation, Putin, decided to stop the further collapse of the Russian empire and to initiate a recovery. But the avalanche has started. Nothing could stop the process. Some minor changes and recovery could be possible, they could delay temporarily the process of collapse but the ultimate end is inevitable. Eventually, the collapse of all empires is a logical process and the world has experienced it many times.

The recent history of Russia is full of controversies. On one hand, the country is still deeply stuck in the communist type of brainwashing process and deep sentiments of nostalgia. At least 8 out of 10 Russians regret the collapse of the Soviet Union when it was a powerful empire influencing developments around the world. On the other hand, the new rules of the game relating to market economy developments imposed new realities and now a couple of thousand people are controlling the wealth of a rich country – Russia. Most of them have acquired their wealth illegally but go unpunished providing they maintain good relations with the ruling elite.

To maintain equilibrium and feel himself comfortably on top, former president and now PM Putin with his KGB past is masterminding new tricks and manipulations. Many analysts and journalists in Russia believe that at the end of the 20th century, while on his way to become president of Russia, Putin was behind the terrorist attacks in the Russian cities where Chechen fighters were accused and this motive was used to launch devastating and bloody attacks against Chechnya. Through this nefarious act, Putin secured his victory in the presidential race. Now he wants to become president once again and is creating an image of the enemy in the form of non Slavonic ethnic minorities in Russia. Mostly they are identified as Caucasian nationals but central Asian ethnicities are also targeted. Russia already took a risk at the end of last century when it promoted and supported ethnic separatist conflicts outside its territory in the neighbouring countries, Transnistria in Moldova, Karabakh in Azerbaijan and two territories Abkhazia and Tskhinvali region in Georgia. Using the motto 'divide and rule' it managed to confront different nations on ethnic grounds, supported separatism and took the dividends. But eventually these moves backfired on Russia and current developments show that the domino effect has started in Russia. Unrest is happening not only in the capital but in the smaller cities and towns of Russia too. The epidemic has started; it will be increasing and inflaming more and more of Russian society, which is contaminated by the virus.

We are observing the process fairly, because it will eventually become a threat for the world if Russia collapses which it inevitably will. Huge danger will arise. Who will be in possession of, and in control of, its huge potential of nuclear arms? This is the vital question and the west should be aware of such a threat.

Multi national and multi religion Russia is moving in a direction towards collapse. It will not happen in one or two years, it will be a long, dramatic and often tragic process. Russia will be divided into small portions. There are around 30 ethnic territories, there are representatives of multiple religious groups and what is more important is that they are unhappy under the Kremlin rule, and now ethnic Slavs want to exercise their priority. So, the west should be ready this time, unlike 20 years ago when the Soviet Union collapsed.