Parade of precedence

The Arab revolutions have already created a parade of precedence. Little Georgia is very attentively watching these developments. Some time ago, Georgia suffered the results of the Kosovo precedent, when Russia practically fulfilled its threat when the western world allowed Kosovo to become independent and Russia used this to get what it wanted in regards to Georgia.

It masterminded provocation and hooked Georgia. Some Georgian analysts observe foreign events with interest. Some forces in the country may provoke civil unrest and revolutionary developments and, if during the current crisis in Libya, international forces interfere in Libya’s affairs in any way then this could give Russia some precedence to intervene in Georgian events as well. Georgia has a bitter experience of such developments. Despite the insisting claims from the west that Kosovo is not the precedent for other countries, Russia used this precedent to commit its subversive activities.

The Libyan developments present the western world with a crucial and difficult choice. If it does not interfere in Libyan affairs, it looks like Gadaffi regime will suppress the opposition, resulting in massive bloodshed. It is already mercilessly bombing its own people. To interfere in these developments UN consent is needed and there is a high probability that UN Security Council permanent member Russia will veto this. In doing so Russia will not be supporting Libya's sovereignty at all, as it is benefiting from the increase of oil prices arising from the problems in Libya.

Direct movement of NATO or other foreign countries' forces into Libya is a very risky step for Georgia in particular, according to some Georgian analysts. However others challenge this position quoting NATO's commitment not to take any steps without UN consent. They think that there will probably not be same situation in Georgia which would give ground to Russia to interfere, however one can expect anything from Moscow. Analysts are concerned that Moscow can itself provoke unrest in Georgia with possible bloodshed and then can use this situation for military interference.

Recently, Arab countries received the statement on a non flight zone in Libya which means that, if agreed with UN, the international community would ban any kind of flights over the Libyan territories thus preventing the Gadaffi forces from bombing and killing its own people. The question remains as to how the UN is going to implement this decision if taken. Most probably it will apply to NATO forces to do so and, in this case, this would already mean international involvement in the Libyan conflict.