Georgia and events in Libya

Along with everyone else in the world, Georgians are closely watching events in Libya. First they look at dramatic moments taking place there, and secondly they try to find parallels with Georgia.

There are different opinions, some think that despite western involvement, things will develop very slowly there. Another opinion considers that western involvement will consolidate the Muslim world however there is an opinion that the end will come soon and Gadaffi is finished.

As for the impact on Georgia, two different aspects are discussed: internal and external. The major threat is coming from Russia, the question is whether it can use the steps taken by the west as a precedent. Whatever the assurances given from the western sides that the Kosovo precedent had no resonance, Moscow trapped Georgians in military actions, accused Georgia of genocide in the occupied Georgian territories and declared breakaway regions as independent states. So Georgians think that this was the price little Georgia paid for the thoughtless decision in regards of Kosovo by the west. As it is known Russia’s Putin has mentioned that Abkhazia was Kosovo’s mirror image.

It is understood in Georgia that the Kremlin has already used the slogan of protecting ethnic minorities by occupying Georgia’s territories. So such a scenario is observed: the ruling power in Georgia uses force against the opposition which will try to provoke developments and Moscow will receive yet another precedent to ‘protect’ someone, this time the opposition, and carry out yet another intervention. Other Georgian analysts challenge this supposition saying that the decisive moment in western interference in Libyan affairs is the UN resolution, so they excluded the chance of Russia’s repeated aggression against Georgia. The opinions differ in this regard however one is certain revolution has become a very attractive form of confrontation inside the country. Many people in Georgia are already speculating about the possibility of a revolution. Moreover such people express their confidence that Saakashvili and his regime will not dare to use force against a revolution.

One thing is not considered by some of the analysts however, that there is a different attitude towards the ongoing revolutionary activities and using force against the opposition. If the west targeted its forces against the Libyan leadership because of the violence there, the west is also quite calmly observing developments in Bahrain where the freedom of the population is suppressed brutally, using other country’s military assistance.

So the question this raises is; are such decisions and developments based on regular logic or is it purely from the interests of the world's big players? Let's see.