May: the month of promised revolutions

The Georgian opposition is divided. It is not only divided into two parts with those driven towards election improvement and the other focused on revolution. Now, even the revolution oriented parties are not united. It looks comical that two political forces, the Georgian party and the Public Assembly have announced different dates for their forecasted revolution. The Georgian party has already started the promised actions on May 9 whereas the Public Assembly will start its own revolutionary moves on May 21.

So we have here in Georgia two announcements of revolution meanwhile the population is not only confused but it is frustrated and disappointed. People see that instead of result-oriented actions the two forces are confronting each other creating a chaotic and unstable situation in the country, they are fighting each other rather than fighting the ruling authorities think some analysts. The opposition tried to change the ruling power through protest rallies in 2007-09. Then most of the opposition forces were united. The goal of the opposition removing the ruling power was not achieved however and the authorities have strengthened their position since that time.

This time some of the opposition still hopes that it would be possible to force the ruling power to hold fair elections to convince it to carry transparent and fair elections thus it completely objects to the so called revolutionary way. Some forces who support revolutionary development do not join this ridiculous simultaneous declaration of two revolutions. The major reason for such confrontation is competition for leadership as well as the possibility of mobilizing enough people to sustain a revolution. Most of the analysts are skeptical including ex president Shevardnadze who stated that the Georgian opposition is not yet ready for revolution. “Revolution is created by people not by the opposition. Two years ago 60 000 people came out into the streets. Our opposition did not do what it had to do. Today people are disappointed and to make them come out into the streets time is needed,” Shevardnadze stated. He also predicted that people have reasons to be unhappy and they will come out into the streets pretty soon. The organizers of the alleged revolution however are making very optimistic statements. Nino Burjanadze, distinct leader of Public Assembly thinks that if a large amount of people come into the street to protest it will not last for long and it will finish quickly. At the same time optimistic statements are made by Georgian party leaders. However the observers are skeptical about the first day of the rallies carried out in Kakheti. Turnout was disappointing according to news agencies who report that at the end of the day about 800 protesters ended up feasting in restaurants.

The Georgian party promised to embrace the whole country in rallies starting from May 9. But how will it last and will the Georgian party actions be joined by Public Assembly activities from May 21 will be answered in 10 days. It is clear that both parties take serious risks if they cannot manage to accumulate people in the process. Moreover what if the authorities do not resign? Is their a distinct action plan of what to do in this case? There is a possibility that all forces and people participating in rallies will be discredited. Some pessimistic analysts however suggest a very large development of revolutionary slogans and actions which will eventually bring certain provocations some of which may be deliberately launched to cause civil unrest and chaos. This could lead to casualties and the "desperate call" for Russia to restore order. In 1968 when Soviet tanks entered Czechoslovakia there was a joke in USSR “What are the Soviet tanks doing in Czechoslovakia? They are looking for a person who invited them in". In the event of such developments is the west prepared to interfere and if so, what kind of preventive measures would it use?