Highlights of announced revolution

The opening round of street actions started by Public Assembly on May 21 already gives ground to certain conclusions. Georgia is on the path to yet another revolution and most probably this revolution or attempted revolution is unlikely to be of the velvet variety.

The ruling administration is ready to defend itself with all possible legal means while the street action participants and leaders are ready to fight using force or counterforce to defend its rights. Obviously this type of scenario is very dangerous, not only for the participating sides but also for the whole country.

The government is using similar tactics today as it had applied in 2009. It is not raiding the protest rally but is using ‘targeted’ attacks by detaining, beating up, intimidating street activists, their leaders and families. It is also using the media to a great extent against the organizers and participants of the street rallies by discrediting their activities and accusing them of various immoral or illegal acts. Some of these accusations may have some substance but many are fabricated.

The Public Assembly actions are similar in Tbilisi and Batumi with the centre of course in Tbilisi. The leaders of the Public Assembly rally are not revealing their action plan but remain confident that they will achieve a quick and positive result. Presumably these positive results would be primarily for themselves.

After some hesitation another opposition political force that is also revolution oriented, the Georgian Party joined the Public Assembly rally. It announced its own plans to bring down the current regime on May 25, therefore it called on its supporters to gather in Avlabari district of Tbilisi close to the President’s palace. One of the leaders of this party Irakli Okruashvili, now in exile abroad, has promised to be back on May 25 to lead his people. It now appears that these two revolution aspirants are united. Despite their previous differences, on May 22 the leaders performed an act of reconciliation which was warmly welcomed by the cheering crowd. Against this background, the rest of the opposition spectrum is strongly expressing its concern and remain as observers. However some of the opposition parties stated that if the authorities use force they will also join the street actions. Meanwhile the situation is escalating in front of the Public Broadcaster in the centre of Tbilisi. There were a couple of clashes between protesters and police where the civilians did not retreat but counter attacked and in fact forced the police special squad forces to retreat. It was a fierce fight with clubs and fists in front of the Public Broadcaster’s building. Neither the ruling administration nor the leaders of the protest rally tried to find a common language and peaceful resolution. Both sides claim that they are victorious. Both sides are prepared and ready to destroy the other side. The Rose administration has much experience. It came to power with force in 2003 and it defended itself with force in 2007. Will this be repeated for a third time? On the other hand the protesters also have to consider old lessons. They must be aware of the fact that the current administration headed by president Saakashvili will not give up like Shevardnadze did in 2003.

Under the circumstances it is absolutely necessary for civilized society to interfere and force the sides to make concessions because any further confrontation will be damaging for the country and could set us back 20 years. It would be appreciated by the population if Georgia's western friends tried to interfere and reconcile the sides by forcing them to make certain concessions. In particular introducing due amendments in the election code.

SOS!