No changes foreseen

While assessing the situation in Georgia, local analysts have come to the conclusion that is most probable that in 2012-2013 there will be no changes in the country’s leadership. There are no forces within the country capable of masterminding a revolution or changing the ruling power through elections, they say.

In 2013 the Rose revolution will celebrate its 10th anniversary just as the victorious leadership is planning to continue its domineering over the country. Of course it should be admitted that during these 10 years the Rose administration suffered some serious losses. Someone calculated roughly that during the protest rally of May 21-25 at around 80% of the opposition members consisted of former Rose Revolution supporters. One of the leaders of the Rose Revolution Zurab Zhvania died in very mysterious surroundings in 2005, another leader Nino Burjanadze, former chair of the parliament is among the radical opposition. Former PM Noghaideli, former ministers of the Rose cabinet Okruashvili, Goga Khaindrava, Georgia’s former ambassadors Irakli Alasania, Viktor Dolidze and others… former MPs and allies like Koba Davitashvili, Zviad Dzidziguri are all in the opposition camp. However until recently the Rose administration has been proclaiming the unity of their members and their success.

A certain problem for the current administration is the issue of where the current President Saakashvili will be positioned. He cannot serve another term as president according to the constitution. So, most probably he will become the PM or maybe the chair of the parliament. Recent amendments in the constitution made this move more accessible. There are certain steps already being made in this direction. The parliament and most probably the PM will be moved to Kutaisi, whereas the president, with fewer duties, will remain in Tbilisi.

To carry out this version of the country's future, the current leadership needs an overwhelming victory in 2012 parliamentary elections so that the United National Movement again secures a constitutional majority in the parliament. The second target is to win the 2013 presidential elections as well, but here is a very complicated situation. On one hand the new president should be an attractive and charismatic figure for the population but on the other hand he must be obedient and loyal towards Saakashvili and his system. The people accepted the new model however it thinks it is essential that Georgia has a strong president who is the governor of the country.

There is one good result from the tragedy of the May 26 dispersal of the protest rally. There is no force whatsoever in Georgia today which would declare revolution as their way to achieve success. The revolutionary method was discredited and that is a step forward to democracy. The vast majority of the opposition seeks peaceful transition of power from the ruling forces, whether this will become viable will become clear later. However, most probably the ruling party will do all it can to preserve its leadership against a determined but democratically minded opposition.