Possible Developments in Russia

The protests which took place in Moscow after the Duma elections have recently been a hot topic in the media worldwide. For Vladimir Putin, these elections should have been a dress rehearsal for his triumphant return to Russia’s presidency, but this turned out not to be as smooth as he had predicted. Many question marks have appeared.

Georgia is very cautiously and attentively following the developments in Russia. It is not a secret that many results for Georgia’s future depends on the situation in Moscow. All analysts are almost unanimous that unless the administration is changed in Moscow, Georgia will not dream of getting back its occupied territories and Georgia’s membership application for NATO will continue to be problematic. There is one more option which could turn out tragically for Georgia – the Russian leadership can launch further aggression against Georgia. The president of Georgia, Mikheil Saakashvili, already commented on developments in Russia, expressing his sympathy towards the Russian people who fight against injustice. The victims of these injustices are not only the Russian population but the occupied regions as well. “In the 21st century there is no room for regimes which try to ignore the free choice of their people and in the neighbouring countries,” stated Saakashvili.

The Georgian president also predicted the end of the unfair system in Russia signifying that what is happening is the beginning of big processes which could end the system there. Many analysts worldwide also speculate about the collapse of the Russian ruling system. It has been said that this regime will not last for the 12 years that Putin appears to have planned for himself, though when exactly it might collapse is not clear for now.

Georgian analysts are concerned that if Russia collapses this would create threats for Georgia. Muslim fundamentalism could take hold in the North Caucasus and that could create uncertainty and instability in the entire Caucasus region. Georgia thus has no interest in the collapse and dismantlement of the Russian state. However, certainly, the best possible scenario for Tbilisi is for democratic changes to take place in Russia and a new government to come to power that condemns Russia’s aggression against Georgia and de-occupies Georgian territories. This looks for now like a distant hope. Despite the protests, the Kremlin maintains a firm grip on power and the Russian government will most likely work now to further block opposition, stem free media sources, and find convenient scapegoats for its own troubles. In terms of such scapegoats, Georgia must hope that it is not first in line.