Will Russia become a triumph of democratic changes?

The world has been closely watching developments in Russia since the results of the Russian State Duma elections in December 2011. Analysts agree that the thousands protesting will not create a significant threat to Russian statehood though they are creating some problems for the so called “monitored” democracy in the Russian Federation. As a result the Medvedev-Putin team has had to partially adjust to the current situation. The process in Russia has created a storm of speculations. Some consider these to be a sign of Russia’s impending disintegration, others argue that this could be the beginning of Russia’s democratic development.

American political analyst, former state secretary Brzezinski labelled the Russian events as part of the “Global Political Awakening”. He also suggested that such processes would lead the country to real democracy, of course provided that Putin does not kill the process right at the beginning. Some political analysts suggest that the general trend of revolutions against tyrannies has reached Moscow and therefore the Russian Federation could become a centre of democratic changes. It is also suggested that Russia’s domineering role in the post-Soviet space will contaminate other former Soviet Union countries and the movement will spread there in the near future.

Some analysts on the other hand are more optimistic, suggesting that 2012 should be a turning point in the development of democratic movements.

Of course Georgia is very much concerned about the events developing in its northern neighbour. President of Georgia Saakashvili considered these moves to be the beginning of an important round in the current political map. He added that he knew that this was going to happen eventually. The Georgian President also mentioned that under the circumstances Georgia has to be very cautious, firm, consistent and equipped with vision of potential future developments. Georgia’s current opposition leader multi billionaire Ivanishvili stated that Putin will return as the leader of Russia as this is Russia’s choice and that dialogue should be conducted with him. In contrast Saakashvili has excluded the possibility of any kind of dialogue with the current leadership and stated that it is the Russian leaders who are refusing to communicate with the Georgian President. Both sides however are for good relations with the Russian people.

Meanwhile since Medvedev-Putin remain in power, the current Georgian national security concept which was adopted recently identifies Russia as the number 1 threat to Georgia as it is occupying Georgia’s territory, and the possibility of a repeat attack is not ruled out.