Who will lead UNM party list?

The United National Movement has not yet submitted a party list to the election commission, therefore the media and political analysts can only speculate as to who will lead the list. There are different options, some think that it would be current Chair of the Parliament David Bakradze, others believe that the current PM will lead the list. There are a number of analysts who think that Saakashvili will resign and he will lead the election list. Any of these options are possible. However, only time will tell.

Bakradze is not very attractive for the population, he lacks charisma. He is not a person with a high rating. As some analysts suggest, he has no individual face. He is neither bad nor good. Former interior minister, now PM Merabishvili has become a charismatic person because of the achievements in the police recently. Mostly due to the elimination crime and the active work of the patrol police. However, his role in the PM position is unlikely to bring much benefit to the UNM. As for the third option – the resignation of the president and his subsequent participation in the parliamentary elections, it seems most attractive for the nationals. First of all, he has a certain charisma and attraction. With him, leading the list nobody would have claims for that position. He is a distinguished leader among UNM members. But there is one problem, the Western allies of Georgia hinted many times and sometimes even directly stated that they would not appreciate at all if the Putin scenario repeats in Georgia. In this case, Saakashvili as the chair of the parliament will be more accepted to foreign partners than Saakashvili as the PM. So according to this version, Saakashvili has to resign sometime in mid-August and lead the UNM party list. However, this will cause additional problems, because the presidential and parliamentary elections will be held simultaneously.

There are also some other scenarios possible. One of those suggests that if the UNM wins without Saakashvili at the head of the list, then after the expiration of his presidential term, he can win extra elections as the majoritarian in any of the districts where his victory could be secured.

There is still yet another option. Saakashvili could remain president until October 2013 and then if the National Movement has a majority in the parliament, they will try to promote their own candidate as the president, while if the Georgian Dream comes to power, with the majority they can start the procedure of impeachment. This will trigger serious civil confrontation. In addition, the president has the right to discharge parliament and call for snap elections. So the situation is fairly complicated. As Vakhtang Khmaladze of Georgian Dream comments, much depends on the configuration of the forces in the parliament after the forthcoming October 1 elections. If opposition parties come to power, the appropriate amendments will be introduced and new forces will impeach the president, but if there is no majority or very little, then the president can veto certain decisions of the ruling majority and lead the country through the political crisis.

There is one more peculiarity as well, the president has no right to discharge the parliament for 6 months from the date of its coming to power, as well he has no right to discharge parliament in the last six months as president. So as usual many questions still remain and the intrigue becomes more acute.