Georgian elections: Possible scenarios

Just three days are left to the most dramatic elections since Georgia declared its independence in 1991. There are huge expectations for the elections. Analysts, journalists and politicians have all made varying prognoses concerning the possible developments. The major motive for all those commenting about the possible outcomes is that neither of them wants civil confrontation. While there may be several possible scenarios, real life can always produce some extra surprises as well.

There are two distinct forces confronting one another. Both of them claim that they will win the elections. The ruling National Movement Party and the opposition Georgian Dream promise to fill the parliament with the majority. Some analysts think that considering the fact that the elections are held by the National Movement and knowing its experience in manipulating the results it is not realistic and that the Georgian Dream will gain an absolute majority of the votes. As for Saakashvili, he promises to overwhelmingly win the elections and the UNM is doing its utmost to receive such result.

So, scenario number 1: The current government wins a majority of seats in the parliament thus it maintains the existing governing system, ignores the opposition and Saakashvili’s political future is secured. However, this will be very difficult, as the overall opposition and human rights protectors involved in the elections as well as foreign observers will be watching attentively trying to prevent violations. So in this case, the Georgian Dream will announce that the elections were rigged and they will begin protest actions. This will be a serious precondition for civil confrontation. Although the state has the potential to suppress any kind of protests, the situation will be very complicated and could become unpredictable.

The second scenario is that the UNM achieves a more modest victory. It would not be able to create an absolute majority and so would be forced to create a coalition creating alliance with some of the family parties like the Christian Democrats, National Democrats and the New Rights. However, this scenario is quite dangerous for the ruling UNM, because at a certain point, the other opposition parties could unite and throw back the National Movement as the minority and the Rose Revolution system will be dismantled. The third scenario suggests receiving very segmented parliament and here the UNM will have even less chance to maintain power, whereas the opposition forces would have more chances to do so.

One of the scenarios will be a solid victory of the Georgian Dream, though in this case, the ruling administration could trigger serious unrest in the country. So most probably, as some analysts suggest, the elections would be a fierce fight between two forces for gaining the final advantage. Some skeptics even suggest that the UNM will just provide fabricated figures, preventing a fair count. All these developments should be considered by the observing international organizations in their efforts prevent more violations and taking responsibility in revealing all such facts.