The elections are over: what is next?

Analysts inside and outside the country, the Georgian population, politicians and international organizations are all attentively watching the Georgian elections and its results. They ask: what will be next? A political crisis, unrest, confrontation or everything will go smoothly?

Some analysts suggest that certain features of a political crisis in Georgia exist already, so no matter who comes to power, serious steps need to be taken to address the situation. Those analysts who think that the ruling power will be changed and the Georgian Dream will create the majority connect the possible aggravation of the crisis with the fact that for one more year, president’s post will be held by Saakashvili. Some suggest that the best option would be if he resigns and snap presidential elections are held.

Another crisis could develop if the National Movement wins the elections, the Georgian Dream challenges the results by accusing the current administration of violating the results of the elections and protest rallies start. In this case, a civil confrontation could occur as the ruling party has prepared law enforcement bodies for such a development anyway. Special riot squads have been prepared; the UNM is not going to give up its power easily.

However, the recent prison abuse scandal created very solid consolidation of the population and the potential for civil confrontation cannot be predicted.

The ideal scenario would be a diversified parliament where neither of the political entities is able to gain a majority and thus a true coalition government would be created.