How realistic is it to impeach Saakashvili?

In October of 2013, President Mikheil Saakashvili will resign and Georgia will elect a new President. Saakashvili is finishing his second and final term of his presidency. However, some MPs from the parliamentary majority have begun speculating on his possible impeachment.

It has been understood as the first step to start a special court case against the United National Movement (UNM) as a political organization and its leaders. The attack against the UNM has become vigorous, in particular, after finding the secret videotapes including shocking details of torturing people during the former UNM regime.

More and more people not only of politicians and analysts, but ordinary citizens have been demanding to ban the UNM as a political party, punishing its leaders and President Saakashvili in particular.

There are speculations on the possibility of detaining Saakashvili as soon as he resigns and loses his presidential immunity. Even Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili stated that he does not want Saakashvili to be detained. However, nothing can be excluded. The Prosecutors Office and court exist in the country and the legislation is the same for everybody. According to Ivanishvili, Saakashvili is a talented person who has managed to cheat the whole world.

Ivanishvili thinks that at first Saakashvili cheated the Georgian people. However, people later realized that he was building up an authoritarian regime. It appeared that almost all private businesses had been controlled by than government and the same was with the media.

Opinions over this issue differ. Some think that Ivanishvili’s administration wants to detain the President; while others suggest that these speculations have been deliberately released to force Saakashvili to leave the country for good before his term expires. Different officials speak about the possibility of at least interrogating Saakashvili to find out the depth of his guilt.

Many controversial cases have been connected with Saakashvili’s name. The first is definitely the War with Russia which has resulted in loss of 20% of the Georgian territories and the death of hundreds of Georgian civilians soldiers in August, 2008.

The murder of a young banker, Sandro Girgvliani by high-ranking police officers is also a special case. The role of the President in this case yet needs to be clarified.

The presidential candidate of the ruling Georgian Dream coalition, Giorgi Margvelashvili has meanwhile stated that the president should be changed through elections. He highlighted that the Presidential Elections this fall should be held in due time in an organized way to prove that Georgia is creating the precedent of a democratic transfer of power. Margvelashvili thinks this is strategically important for the image of the state and sustainability of Georgian statehood.

As for the process of impeachment, there are many formalities. First of all it requires a constitutional majority in Parliament. As for the possible detention of Saakashvili, the consequences are unpredictable. Georgia’s leadership should thoroughly weigh and reconsider all the steps carefully.