What are the chances of the presidential candidates?

Just around three months prior to the presidential elections, the participants are launching their campaigns. Of course, nobody denies the likelihood of the Georgian Dream representative, Giorgi Margvelashvili winning. In fact, leaders of the coalition state at different levels that their candidate will win by an overwhelming majority.

However, some analysts challenge such optimism, suggesting the possibility of a second round. According to Georgian legislation, the winner needs to receive more than 50% of the votes.

Generally speaking, the Georgian Dream honeymoon period has ended. The population's optimism with regard to the Georgian Dream has returned to reasonable levels. This is understandable, as the coalition had given out broad promises including promises related to economic and social issues. Some of these promises have not been fulfilled. Coalition leaders explain this by pointing out that nobody could reasonably expect things to improve so quickly considering the mess the United National Movement (UNM) left behind.

Georgian Dream coalition leaders suspected that things were not that good, but nobody would have predicted that the situation indeed was much worse then it had been thought.

The results of the various research showed that the population is still enthusiastic about the Georgian Dream's promises and position. However, the number of those who have become frustrated, disappointed and skeptical is increasing.

Most skepticism is based on the economic situation in the country, the slowing of economic growth indicators, no major breakthrough in the unemployment level, and the continued lack of substantial investment coming in the country.

The state has done quite a lot in the direction of increased pensions, the introduction of insurance programs covering the entire population and so on. However, in many cases, gross violations of the previous administration were found where huge money was spent without achieving serious results.

So, all these factors create the situation when neither of the presidential candidates, including the leading Georgian Dream candidate will obtain more than 50% on the first trial, so most probably, a second round will be needed. This is the opinion of various observers and ordinary people.