Possible impacts of the Syrian conflict on Georgia

It seems increasingly likely that the U.S, the U.K., France, Israel and other countries might intervene in the civil war in Syria, which has been raging for almost two and a half years. The reason for intervention is the Syrian government's alleged chemical weapons against its own citizens.

The world is waiting for the U.N. weapon inspectors' report on Saturday.

Much depends on the report's conclusion. If the U.N. confirms that the Syrian government used chemical weapons, then the U.S. will ask the U.N to convene the Security Council and ask for a mandate to use military force against the current Syrian government. All members of the Security Council except Russia and China will support the move. Therefore, the situation will become very controversial and presumably USA and its allies will to make a decision to attack Syria without a U.N. Security Council resolution.

The situation could negatively affect Georgia.

In 2008, most Western countries recognized Kosovo's independence. Russia, which strongly opposed Kosovar independence, cited this as a precedent and started taking a very aggressive stance against Georgia, which eventually led to war. Russia might do the same thing again if the West intervenes in Syria.

Georgia is not in a position to do much to stop Russia. Georgia should maintain an even-keeled policy towards Russia and not be provoked.

Despite the current Georgian government's more conciliatory stance towards Moscow, Russia continues it provocations. Recently Russia installed a fence on the so-called administrative border between Georgia proper and the breakaway South Ossetia region. Just recently, President Vladimir Putin visited Abkhazia and met its puppet president.

Of course, there is no room for panic; however, Georgia’s foreign policy should be ready for all kinds of possible developments.