Events in Ukraine could have profound effects on Georgia

The stand-off in Ukraine has attracted the attention of the whole world. Georgia is particularly interested in the events, as many people in Georgia believe that the developments in Ukraine could have an effect on Georgia either directly or indirectly.

In plain words, what is happening in Ukraine represents a crucial battle between Russia and the West. Russia desperately wants to prevent Ukraine from moving towards Europe, as this would mean similar dramatic developments in Russia. However, if Moscow succeeds in Ukraine, a similar scenario could be applied to Georgia.

The confidence of Georgian politicians and analysts that pro-Russian forces in Georgia are rather weak and the country’s political spectrum is almost completely oriented to the West, could be challenged and the government might face unpleasant surprises.

Even inside the Georgian Dream administration there are certain entities, which somehow distance themselves from the West. The activation of pro-Russian forces is noticeable in the country. Several non-governmental organizations have appeared who do not conceal their orientation anymore (Erekle II Society, Georgia’s Euro-Asian Choice, etc.), and some media outlets (Georgia and The World, Asaval-Dasavali) have freely expressed their pro-Russian sentiment as well.

The Industrialists’ Party, which is the part of the Georgian Dream coalition, has expressed reservations regarding problems for Georgian entrepreneurs in the case Georgia’s EU association membership comes to fruition.

However, Russia’s own conduct creates obstacles to its influence in Georgia. Stubbornly and arrogantly, Moscow continues the occupation of Georgian territories. Recently it began the installation of barbed wire fences along the administrative border between the Georgian mainland and its breakaway territories.

This of course irritates the entire Georgian population. There is other trifle but nasty facts. For instance, the leaders of the Georgian separatist regions have been invited to attend the Sochi Olympic Games by Russian officials as Russian media informs.

This of course creates a negative reaction among the Georgian population and undermines the policy of reconciliation declared by the Georgian government.

Russian political analysts have also begun speculating about certain aggressive steps that Russia might take towards Georgia. The possibility of such developments will become clear as soon as the Sochi Olympic Games are over and Russia can better focus on implementing its own approach towards Ukraine.

If the confrontation further escalates in Kyiv, Ukraine will face civil confrontation and possible disintegration. This scenario could be provoked by Russia, which has its own claims over certain territories now under the Ukrainian control.

Presumably, the EU and the US will try to interfere to stop the possibility of such developments. In this regards the position of the western countries is very important. If they do not protect Ukraine and allow Moscow to impose its will on Ukraine, this would put the Georgian issue on the agenda. Of course if the West surrenders Ukraine to Russia, Georgia could share the same fate.

Under such circumstances, Georgia will lose its EU membership incentives and eventually its NATO aspiration will also be frustrated.

Quite simply, Georgia’s fate will be decided in Kyiv.