Still under threat

After the triumph in Crimea, many analysts suggest that Russian President Vladimir Putin will not stop there and will most probably continue his actions with other close neighbors.

Russia has already tested the Western reaction and it looks like Moscow does not have much more to lose. If the international community imposes sanctions against Russia, it does not matter indeed whether these sanctions will be only because of Crimean aggression or some other territories from different countries.

The question is who will be next? Will it be Moldova, Georgia or Ukraine again? Or will it be a Central Asian country like Kazakhstan, or some other?

Presumably, Russia will not touch NATO member states like Bulgaria, Romania, the Baltic republics or even Poland. That would be an extra challenge and risk for Moscow because in this case the conflict might receive a military character and it would contain a possible serious threat to Moscow.

As for the non-NATO member countries, they are unprotected, very weak and too disorganized to create any kind of serious resistance against Moscow and the Kremlin can conduct any kind of aggressive steps there.

A sense of non-punishment has already been felt in Moscow. It is becoming more and more arrogant and capable to commit other outrageous steps.

Recently the US Republican Congressman, Mike Rogers, in his interview with Fox News mentioned his concern about future steps Moscow might take.

It is very interesting how well the Georgian government is prepared to face the possible challenges. There has always been an effort of the Russian Tsars to find a passage to warm seas. Now a certain route has become visible in this direction. How can Russia reach warm seas - presumably, the Persian Gulf through the South Caucasus and Iran.

In this direction, Moscow has devoted allies: Armenia and Iran, both which have friendly links with Moscow and it is not a secret that in certain ways Russia is involved in nuclear programs in Iran - let us consider - in peaceful ways.

So, the only headache Moscow has in this route is independent Georgia. This country with its straightforward claims to join the European Union and NATO is thorn in the bear’s paw. Georgia wants to eliminate any subordination to Moscow, which is directly against Russian regional interests. Therefore, now it is a very intriguing situation for the Kremlin to fulfill its plans.

Russia is already occupying 20% of Georgia’s territory. It has transformed these territories into strongholds for Russian troops. These breakaway territories are stuck with Russian armies.

Information exists that Russia wants to undermine the situation in South Georgia, the Javakheti region in particular, which is primarily inhabited by ethnic Armenians. Signals have come from the region that Russia is already distributing Russian passports to these people so that one morning we may have a Russian population of Armenian ethnicity there claiming Russian citizenship.

How can Georgia resist this threat? The only possible shortest way is to sign a bilateral treaty between the US and Georgia where Georgia will invite the US to install its military bases in Georgia and do it in the quickest way.

The US has to take this decision and risk, which is the only possible way to stop Russia. Otherwise, it will continue its aggression. So, tit for tat.