New wave of confrontation possible

One round of confrontation between the president and the prime minister has ended as Prime Minister Irakli Gharibashvili left for the United States to attend the UN summit. However, it appears that another clash might be on the horizon.

It was said that Margvelashvili was going to resign in February. The president neither denied nor confirmed this speculation. Some analysts believe that the president is confused and does not know what to do. Despite the confrontation over Margvelashvili’s intentions to travel to New York, the coalition seemed happy with the statements made by the president when he said that he did not intend to quit the Georgian Dream. It has frequently been suggested that following the negative opinions aimed at Margvelashvili, he might join the opposition United National Movement or create his own party.

Most analysts believe that if Margvelashvili really takes such a step, it would be better for him and the country to found a new political entity. Analysts have stated that Georgia is in need of a new party or a coalition that will form a strong opposition to the current government, one that will have a Western orientation and will not be associated with the UNM.

Margvelashvili, who defeated the UNM candidate in the elections and is opposed by his own team, might be a good leader of such an entity.

Some coalition members have appealed to Margvelashvili to resign. There are also talks about his impeachment as well. However, Margvelashvili has not given a reason for the latter. If the coalition launches the impeachment campaign against the president, the process will definitely be complicated and harmful for the party.

In one of his interviews Margvelashvili claimed that he could dismiss the government in the case of a political crisis. However, the current constitution would not allow this. The president can only dismiss the government in two cases: When the cabinet formation fails and when the president does not confirm the state budget. According to analyst Vakhtang Dzabiradze, both of these developments are unlikely to take place.

The only step Margvelashvili can easily take is resignation. However, this might create problems for the coalition and provide fewer votes for its future presidential candidate. Even in this case, analysts stress that the GD candidate might win anyway, as the coalition still enjoys high public ratings.

The second option for the president is to leave the post and try to find his own place in politics. The situation will be a serious challenge for Margvelashvili, as he will have to overcome various obstacles.

One thing is clear however, Margvelashvili’s issue has confirmed that Georgian politics are unpredictable and making forecasts is futile endeavor.