Georgia-NATO and regional tension

“Georgia is not a NATO member and when they talk about its protection, we should take into account that NATO will protect Georgia and its members in different ways,” Strategic and International Studies Centre analyst Jeffrey Radtke told the Georgian bureau of the Voice of America.

"As for Georgia, the Alliance and Georgia have good relations and connections are regularly being strengthened. NATO's desire for more proximity has been revealed at the last meeting too. However, we must remember that Georgia is not a NATO member and when they talk about its protection, we should take into account that NATO will protect Georgia and its members in different ways,” said the analyst.

According to Cory Welt, a professor of Eurasian Studies at George Washington University, it will be an immediate threat to Georgia if a conflict escalates between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the light of the recent Turkish-Russian confrontations.

"I think a direct threat to Georgia is the possible escalation of conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, especially if the conflict indirectly reflects the Turkey-Russia conflict. It is important that the heated environment be defused. Georgia’s airspace has recently been violated several times and I think it is a kind of pressure to entail a responsive reaction.

“Regardless of whether Georgia gets MAP or membership, it should actively continue to develop the NATO Training Center in Tbilisi. The United States must also keep close ties with Georgia in various fields. In the end, Georgia is not a direct victim in this new reality; however, the situation certainly contains some threats,” said Welt.

Of course, any confrontation or tension in the region will be reflected on Georgia and some states might also demand that Georgia reveal its position in the conflicts and openly choose a side.

In case of such a choice, Georgia could face even more serious threats.

Conflicts in the region are never solely reflecting only politics; such situations seriously damage and deteriorate the countries’ economic situations.

Thus, Georgia will certainly suffer in the event that any serious conflict breaks out near its borders.

With regards to NATO, everyone knows that even MAP does not guarantee military protection from the Alliance, and if Georgia is rejected from accession to NATO or denied MAP, the Georgian people might lose confidence in the national Euro-Atlantic path.

In previous years, Georgia has been told many times that it has successfully carried out its reforms and is hitting NATO's targets, though it is consistently denied membership for the most vague of reasons. Of course, there might be some shortcomings in Georgia, but even NATO member states have internal drawbacks that do affect their membership in the alliance.

Despite the fact the government has recommended that the Georgian people not get their hopes up, the expectation of a positive outcome from the Warsaw Summit remains.