Political context of the state of emergency

The Coronavirus pandemic in Georgia is exacerbating, with the government having announced the state of emergency. In the fight against the pandemic, the opposition is showing solidarity with the authorities, but fears the possible political consequences of the state of emergency that could hinder electoral reform and a possible postponement of the 2020 parliamentary elections.

On March 21st, at the Prime Minister's nomination under the constitution, President Salome Zourabichvili issued a decree declaring a state of emergency throughout the country. On the same day, the Parliament unanimously approved the decree by 115 votes. This session of the Parliament was attended by representatives of the opposition parties - the United National Movement and European Georgia. The state of emergency was declared for one month, until April 21st. However, the situation is uncertain with regard to the spread of the virus at this time.

On March 23rd, the quarantine was announced in Bolnisi and Marneuli municipalities. This is related to the discovery of the danger of large-scale spread of the Coronavirus in the regions. A local woman, who had been infected with COVID-19, was not practicing social distance and continued to work as a shopkeeper. She had also been to a wake, where she had contact with dozens.

The education processes and flights, and part of the public transport, are completely on hold due to the virus. A large number of the residents of the cities have moved to rural areas, where they feel safer. This may explain the long queues in supermarkets; people, preparing to flee to the regions, stocked up on grocery products. The residents, living in the regions, became worried about the large influx of people from the cities, fearing that they would bring the virus with them.

Announcing the state of emergency, President Salome Zourabichvili noted that it would not take a political dimension:

“Neither freedom of speech, basic individual rights, nor freedom of the media, nor political rights are restricted. The state of emergency does not include a curfew.”

However, the announcement of a state of emergency has already had significant implications for Georgian politics. The public debate needed for the constitutional amendments has ceased since in a state of emergency prohibits it.

Authorities say the constitutional amendments will continue to be discussed after the state of emergency is lifted and parliament will be able to approve it before the election, but the date of the elections is under question. When declaring a state of emergency, Zourabichvili noted that parliamentary elections would take place only six months after having terminated the state of emergency.

Parliamentary elections in 2020 are scheduled for the end of October. If the state of emergency is lifted on April 21st, there are still six months left before the election, but will the state of emergency have to go on for longer? The opposition does not talk about postponing the elections yet and hopes that they will take place in October.

The position of the Georgian Orthodox Church is another widely discussed issue. At a March 7th synod, which lasted for seven hours, it was decided that the rules of communion and the rule of prayer in churches would not change, containing the danger of spreading the virus further. “Anyone who thinks that it’s not good to go to a church, may they visit the leader (Lenin) at the Mausoleum,” said Bishop Jacob.

Some also linked the state of emergency to the March 21st decision by the Synod. The authorities are reluctant to give direct instructions to the Church and hope that the Church itself will make some changes due to the dangers related to the pandemic.

Much depends on the position of the Church as the peak of the Coronavirus epidemic is expected from the first occurrence at 7 to 8 weeks. The first case in Georgia was identified on February 26th, so the peak of the epidemic falls on April 15-22nd, which coincides with the Orthodox Easter.

What does the peak of the Coronavirus mean for Georgia? Some infectious disease doctors suggest it could mean up to a thousand cases. However, if all goes well and the spread of the epidemic can be prevented, the magnitude may be much smaller.

If we look at the history of the state of emergency, this is the fifth case of a state of emergency in Georgia in the last two decades. The state of emergency was introduced for the third time throughout the country. The previous two cases, however, were not related to an epidemic, but to the acute internal political controversy. For the first time, Shevardnadze declared a state of emergency in 2003. It was announced on November 22nc, during the Rose Revolution, but refused to use the army and resigned.

The Second State of Emergency was announced by Saakashvili on November 7th, 2007 when he dispersed the opposition rally and Imedi TV. Then, Saakashvili stepped down to ease the situation and early parliamentary elections were scheduled.

The state of emergency was also announced after the 2008 August War in a few regions on September 3rd.

There were also two cases of local and regional emergencies that were linked to epidemics and natural disasters. A state of emergency due to the outbreak of Avian Influenza was introduced on February 28th in Khelvachauri district; On August 22nd, 2017, a state of emergency was declared over fires in the Borjomi and Ateni Gorge.
(Translated by Mariam Mchedlidze)