Georgian Dream Faces Challenges with EU Membership Recommendations: Uncertain Path Forward

By Malkhaz Matsaberidze

Thursday, August 10, 2023

The task of meeting the 12 recommendations required to attain EU membership candidate status has posed a challenge for the Georgian authorities. One year after receiving these recommendations, the Georgian Dream party acknowledges that certain recommendations are unclear and require further clarification.

Recently, the Georgian Dream confidently announced that almost all of the recommendations given for obtaining candidate status for EU membership have been fulfilled. For example, on May 30, Prime Minister Irakli Gharibashvili, during his speech in the Parliament of Georgia, stated that 11 of the 12 recommendations of the European Commission have already been implemented, and only one recommendation - reduction of polarization - cannot be implemented, as he said, because of the "irresponsible opposition."

The European Commission's assessment of the situation is different. In the interim report published in June, it is noted that Georgia has fully implemented only three of the 12 recommendations: 1. Recommendation related to gender equality, fight against violence against women 2. Appointment of a public defender and 3. Pro-active consideration of the decisions of the European Court of Human Rights during consideration by Georgian courts. In addition, according to the European Commissioner's assessment, Georgia has made partial progress in fulfilling 7 recommendations. Two more recommendations are unfulfilled.

After the assessment made by the European Commission, the Georgian Dream no longer talks about the "11 implemented recommendations." According to Irakli Kobakhidze, the chairman of the Georgian Dream, everything that could be done by the end of June was done, and the three recommendations are unclear as to what the European Union requires and 'more specifics' are needed from the EU side. In particular, the Georgian authorities consider it unclear what is meant by the demand for court reform and what is meant by de-oligarchization. "When they tell us that de-oligarchization is necessary, they should specify who the oligarchs are. We are interested in what the European Union thinks," said Kobakhidze.

One of the European parliamentarians specified earlier that de-oligarchization means freeing the government from the influence of Bidzina Ivanishvili and explained that 'de-oligarchization' means 'debidzinization'. Such an explanation is categorically unacceptable for the ruling Georgian Dream. The representatives of the ruling party claim that Bidzina Ivanishvili is only a patron and in no case falls under the law of de-oligarchization, which was prepared according to the Ukrainian model and was rejected by the Venice Commission.

Such an explanation is categorically unacceptable for the ruling Georgian Dream. The government representatives claim that Bidzina Ivanishvili is only a patron and in no case falls under the law of de-oligarchization, which was prepared according to the Ukrainian model and was rejected by the Venice Commission.

What Kobakhidze says about "not understanding the direction for de-oligarchization" essentially means the following - the European Commission will either remove the demand for de-oligarchization altogether, or they will implement a law developed according to the Ukrainian model and start looking for oligarchs behind unwanted opposition parties, and this will happen before the upcoming elections.

The situation with regard to judicial reform is similar. The essence of the court reform is to have a court that is actually independent of the government, otherwise, Stalin also claimed that the court is independent and no one interferes in its decisions. The EU request will probably be reduced to the staffing of the Council of Justice.

The statement about "unclear recommendations" made one year after the adoption of the recommendations of the European Commission is strange. It is not yet known what the EU's response will be, or if there will be one at all. In fact, as experts point out, there is nothing incomprehensible in the recommendations of the European Union and, most importantly, if there is a corresponding political will, they can be implemented in a short time.

For example, the implementation of the recommendation on depolarization will actually be ensured by the restoration of the agreement reached between the government and the opposition, brokered by Charles Michel. Implementation of 12 recommendations of the European Union in the remaining time until October is quite possible, but their implementation essentially means the end of the Georgian Dream's ruling. That is why the actual implementation of recommendations is delayed and we see partial implementation and imitation of implementation.

Despite the unfulfilled recommendations, some of the experts and politicians still hope that taking into account the geopolitical situation, Georgia will still be given candidate status, subject to certain conditions and a list of recommendations to be implemented, to which the demand for the 2024 parliamentary elections to be held democratically and fairly can be added.

The Georgian Dream is ready both to be rejected by the European Union and to receive the status of a candidate and will use both scenarios for electoral purposes. In case of refusal, they will talk about the "injustice of the West", which oppresses Georgia for "maintaining peace" and "not opening a second front" to Russia. The Anti-Western rhetoric will intensify, further distancing the country from the West.

If Georgia does receive the status, the government will speak about their achievements, the 'injustice' shown earlier by the West, continuing the anti-Western policy, given that they have been making it work in their favor.

Determining the preferable outcome for the opposition is a complex task. The scenario where Georgia achieves the status seems more favorable, as it would necessitate the Georgian government being accountable to the West. This accountability would extend to aspects like the conduct of the impending parliamentary elections. The outcome of the 2024 parliamentary elections holds significant weight in this matter.