Georgian Dream Launches Election Campaign
By Malkhaz Matsaberidze
Wednesday, July 31, 2024
On July 16, Georgian Dream launched their election campaign from their new, costly party office. Bidzina Ivanishvili and his team declared themselves the presumptive winners of the upcoming parliamentary elections and threatened to prosecute the opposition, which they labelled the "collective National Movement."
The main highlight of Georgian Dream's pre-election announcement was, unsurprisingly, Bidzina Ivanishvili's speech. His official title today is "Founder of Georgian Dream, Honorary Chairman of the Party." Ivanishvili expanded on his April 29 speech with new messages, which had previously coincided with the passage of the "Russian law" and significant protest rallies.
Georgian Dream has been in power since 2012, having won three consecutive 4-year parliamentary elections. No previous government - neither Shevardnadze's nor Saakashvili's - has been in power for more than two parliamentary terms. However, Georgian Dream is preparing for victory in the fourth election and confidently states that this will not be their last win. According to Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze, Georgian Dream plans to avoid losing any elections for at least the next 12 years.
Regarding the 2024 elections, recently the leaders of Georgian Dream have been talking about their unprecedented 60% rating. It is not known what research their statement is based on. On the other hand, opposition representatives claim that Georgian Dream's rating has sharply declined and stands at around 30%. They assert that achieving a 'higher' figure would only be possible through various methods of election result falsification.
Georgian Dream can count on the anti-Western and, consequently, pro-Russian electorate. Anti-Western propaganda has been intensively ongoing in Georgia for years; nonetheless, the number of people who hold a negative attitude toward the West is approximately 30% for various reasons. Therefore, Georgian Dream is cautious with the "anti-Western" votes and, under the conditions of the 5% barrier, tries to prevent any other political force from claiming the votes of this electorate. It was noted on July 16 that People's Power, supposedly separated from Georgian Dream, will run in the elections with a joint list alongside Georgian Dream. The reason for the separation was the desire to freely criticise the West, but now it's hard to distinguish where People's Power ends and Georgian Dream begins in this regard.
Ivanishvili also mentioned Georgian Dream's 60% rating, but according to him, simply achieving a "majority of mandates" will not be enough. Georgian Dream must secure a victory equivalent to a "constitutional majority". This statement once again highlights that only such a majority can ensure the seamless maintenance of the current power system, meaning Ivanishvili's governance.
Much like Ivanishvili's April 29 speech, it was emphasised again that a constitutional majority is needed by Georgian Dream primarily to eliminate the current opposition. The configuration of the opposition forces today is of no significance to Georgian Dream. The entire opposition is labelled as the "collective National Movement. According to Ivanishvili, to "ensure the further development of the country," it is necessary to prosecute them for crimes committed while in power, especially for following "external orders" in 2008, which led the country into war and resulted in the "temporary loss of two historic regions of Georgia."
In a country where a large portion of the population lives in economic hardship, Ivanishvili and his team have not made any specific economic promises ahead of the new elections. The focus is on international issues, though their perspective on the world appears unusual. Ivanishvili did not mention Russia even once, extended special thanks to China, and continued to criticise the "global war party" that, according to him, is trying to drag Georgia into a conflict against Russia. Ivanishvili claims that his government is being told, "either you go to war or you leave," and he urged the people of Georgia to make the "right choice" between the "war party", meaning the opposition, and the current government, which he claims brings peace.
The leaders of Georgian Dream have repeatedly been told to stop spreading such falsehoods; no one is trying to drag Georgia into a war. In fact, since coming to power in 2012, Georgian Dream has done little to strengthen the Georgian military, and it is more in Russia's interest than anyone else's to see Georgia involved in a conflict.
A recent development clarified who is meant by the "global war party". Ivanishvili explained that this "global war party" holds significant influence over the current American and European bureaucracies, creating the perception among the Georgian public that Georgia is at odds with the U.S. government and the European Union. In reality, the Georgian government only needs to hold on for one more year. According to Ivanishvili's forecast, the war in Ukraine will end within this year, and if Trump wins, it could happen even sooner, in January. After that, the criticism of Georgia will supposedly stop, and the "Chinese vector" in its policy will be accepted without issue.
Under constant criticism from the West, Georgian Dream is perpetually waiting for favourable changes. They have pinned their hopes on various outcomes: the victory of sympathetic forces in the European Parliament elections, the rise of the ultra-right in France, and now, Trump's return to power. Although their predictions have not come true, they are banking on the "Trump narrative" to navigate through the October 26 parliamentary elections.
They did not mention that the European Union has halted Georgia's integration process. Instead, there were continued promises that Georgia would join the EU, but move towards Europe "with peace, dignity, and prosperity," as Ivanishvili put it. However, if they manage to get through the elections, a different rhetoric is likely to emerge. An organisation called "Neutral Georgia! has already been established, and a person close to Bidzina Ivanishvili, the owner of the TV company "Imedi", has demanded the removal of Article 78 from the Constitution, which states Georgia's desire for Western integration in its politics.
They did not mention that the European Union has paused Georgia's integration process. Instead, promises persisted that Georgia would eventually join the EU, but it would do so "with peace, dignity, and prosperity," as Ivanishvili stated. However, should they navigate successfully through the elections, a shift in rhetoric is anticipated. A new organisation called "Neutral Georgia" has been established, and a close associate of Bidzina Ivanishvili, who owns the TV channel Imedi, has called for the removal of Article 78 from the Constitution, which enshrines Georgia's desire for Western integration.