Caucasus Barometer 2024 Reveals Georgia's Political Parties Are Weaker Than They Claim
By Malkhaz Matsaberidze
Monday, August 12, 2024
A recent survey, "Caucasus Barometer 2024," revealed that political parties in Georgia enjoy less support than they believe. The ruling Georgian Dream has a 21% approval rating, while other political parties need substantial effort to surpass the 5% threshold.
The survey, conducted by CRRC from April 16 to May 13, 2024, was completed two months ago, and party representatives might claim (as they often do) that the survey is not trustworthy or outdated and that the situation has changed. It is difficult to determine what the so-called "internal surveys" conducted by the parties show, but the results of the "Caucasus Barometer" should cause serious concern.
Representatives of the Georgian Dream continually state that their internal surveys show support exceeding 60%, and Bidzina Ivanishvili even claimed that they need a constitutional majority in the next parliament. The 21% recorded by the "Caucasus Barometer" is significantly lower than these claims. If the 2024 elections were held with a 1% threshold like in 2020, the Georgian Dream would inevitably have to relinquish power. Therefore, the 5% threshold is maintained. Votes for parties failing to cross this threshold will be redistributed in favour of the current ruling party.
For some time, experts and party representatives have believed, almost as an axiom, that overcoming the 5% threshold would not be a problem for several opposition parties. Among these were named the United National Movement (UNM), based on previous results, Giorgi Gakharia's "For Georgia," and "Lelo." The "Caucasus Barometer" of 2024 has undermined such optimism.
It turned out that two parties have a 3% rating: the United National Movement (under Levan Khabeishvili during the survey) and the newly formed "New" party (led by Nika Melia and Nika Gvaramia). The split within the United National Movement and the creation of the "New" party have removed part of the UNM's electorate. They cannot take for granted crossing the 5% threshold.
According to the "Caucasus Barometer," another 11 parties have a 1% rating each, with other parties receiving only 2% combined. This is the reality shown by the survey. There have long been calls for Western-oriented opposition parties to unite ahead of the elections. The idea of creating a large opposition coalition, initially proposed by the UNM, was rejected by a significant portion of Western-oriented parties, and it was considered more appropriate to form several centers. With the approach of the elections, this unification process has accelerated.
If we consider the movement of 1% rated parties as indicated by the "Caucasus Barometer," the UNM has been joined by Strategy Aghmashenebeli" (Giorgi Vashadze). The "Akhali" party has joined with Zurab Japaridze's "Girchi - More Freedom" and other parties that did not reach the 1% threshold. "Lelo" (Mamuka Khazaradze, Badri Japaridze, Davit Usupashvili), which had a 1% rating according to the "Caucasus Barometer," has been joined by similarly rated parties such as Ana Dolidze's "For People" and Aleko Elisashvili's "Citizens".
It is already known that former Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia's "For Georgia", which had a 1% rating according to the "Caucasus Barometer," will run separately, and the 5% threshold could pose a problem.
The remaining 1% Western-oriented parties are the "Labor Party" (Shalva Natelashvili) and "European Georgia" (Giga Bokeria). If these two parties do not join any Western-oriented coalition, they will likely not make it to parliament.
Regarding other 1% parties, if "Conservative Party" (Zviad Dzidziguri) and the conservative movement "Alt-Info" run separately, they will take away some votes from the Georgian Dream. It is also likely that Iago Khvichia's "Girchi" will not make it to parliament. Other parties with a combined rating of 2% will probably participate in the elections and take a small portion of the votes.
It should be noted that more than half of the respondents avoided giving a specific answer. 31% stated that there is no party they support, 8% said they do not know which party they support, and 21% declined to answer.
Considering previous survey results, distrust towards political parties and dissatisfaction with their performance are high in Georgia. According to IRI's 2022 survey, 72% of respondents said they want to see new political parties in the next elections, and 42% stated that no existing party represents their interests.
It is noteworthy that the combined support percentage for specific parties (39%) is lower than the number of those willing to participate in the elections. When asked if they would participate in parliamentary elections if they were held next week, 65% of respondents said they definitely would, and 18% said they probably would. Therefore, a significant portion of citizens want to participate in the elections but are unsure which party to support.
With less than 100 days remaining until the October 26 elections, the political arena is extremely polarised. Both sides have declared the upcoming elections as a referendum. According to the Georgian Dream, this election will be a choice between war and peace. If they fail to maintain power, the so-called "global war party" will drag Georgia into a war. The pro-Western opposition, on the other hand, claims that the upcoming elections are a choice between Georgia's Western orientation and Russia. They argue that to restore the Western vector in Georgian politics, it is essential to remove the Georgian Dream from power and bring a pro-Western coalition government into office.