Potential Russian Interference in Georgia's Parliamentary Elections

By Malkhaz Matsaberidze

Wednesday, August 28, 2024

As the October 26 parliamentary elections approach, the issue of potential Russian interference is becoming increasingly relevant. This concern is periodically raised, and in February of this year, it was first highlighted by Georgia's President Salome Zourabichvili. More recently, the U.S. State Department also expressed concern over the matter.

On February 27, in an interview with Sky News, President Salome Zourabichvili expressed her worries about possible Russian interference in Georgia's "very important" 2024 parliamentary elections. She pointed out that there are unfortunate experiences in other, much stronger countries of Russia's interference in their elections. Regarding Georgia's own experience, she mentioned cyberattacks, anti-Western and pro-Russian propaganda, and Moscow's funding of marginal pro-Russian parties and groups.

Given the nature of Russian interference in various countries' elections, this interference typically has two main goals: first, to influence voters in favour of a particular candidate or party, often by discrediting their competitors and launching negative campaigns against them. Second, to undermine public trust in democratic institutions and the electoral process, intensify polarisation, sow fear, and create destabilisation.

Cyberattacks aimed at influencing elections could target electoral administration, software or hardware providers, political parties, the media, and the NGO sector. As for informational operations, the activities aimed at increasing polarisation usually target groups that are sensitive to ethnic, religious, minority rights, or other sensitive issues.

Countering such interference is the responsibility of the state and requires a serious approach. One of the European Union's demands was to strengthen the fight against Russian disinformation and Kremlin propaganda. However, the current Georgian government views statements about threats from Russia made by President Zourabichvili and others as artificial speculation and accuses the President of preemptively damaging the electoral process. According to a member of the parliamentary majority, Irakli Kadagishvili, Zourabichvili's statement about potential Russian interference in the elections was a "political vendetta" against the ruling party, Georgian Dream.

Representatives of the Georgian government have been speaking about possible Western interference in Georgia's elections since last year. They accuse USAID and the European Union of meddling. For instance, Parliament Speaker Shalva Papuashvili mentioned three components of Western interference: a) training people to have a "radical agenda"; b) supporting radical protests; and c) shielding these individuals when they break the law, particularly when they are arrested during protests.

In October 2023, the State Security Service launched an investigation into the so-called "training case" funded by international partners. At that time, the chairman of Georgian Dream, Irakli Kobakhidze, claimed that the training funded by USAID was "directly aimed at preparing a revolution in Georgia."

This year, following President Zourabichvili's statement about possible Russian interference in the elections, Parliament Speaker Shalva Papuashvili again pointed to threats from the West, noting that opposition parties are directly funded from abroad through NGOs, which, during an election year, is "equivalent to foreign interference in the elections."

Experts argue that Georgian Dream cannot imagine relinquishing power and fears it will not succeed in the upcoming elections, particularly regarding the West's position. As Khatuna Lagazidze noted, the government's stance seems to be "preemptively securing election fraud."

In this context, Russia appears as a peculiar ally of the Georgian government, with its representatives periodically claiming that the United States plans to change the government in Georgia, orchestrate another 'colourful revolution' or 'Maidan'. This time, on July 9, the press service of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service claimed that Washington is determined to ensure a change of government in Georgia after the October 26 parliamentary elections. According to the Foreign Intelligence Service, the Biden administration has developed a "massive informational campaign" aimed at discrediting the ruling party in Georgia. The Russian government asserts that President Salome Zourabichvili is expected to play a key role in fomenting anti-government sentiments. Additionally, they claim that "American handlers" have already instructed the opposition to begin protests in the country parallel to the parliamentary elections.

This is not the first time this year that a statement has been made in Russia regarding anticipated unrest in Georgia this fall. On June 4, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin stated that the West is attempting to implement a new "Maidan" in Georgia by October. Following the reintroduction of the "agents law", representatives of the Georgian government, as well as the State Security Service, began talking about the threat of a "Maidan scenario" and the overthrow of the government.

The Russian intelligence statement was first responded to by Giorgi Gakharia's party, For Georgia. The party claims that the statement is a direct attempt to interfere in the October elections and assist Georgian Dream in election fraud, which is coordinated with Moscow. The main tool for influencing voters and election fraud is Russian-style propaganda, which falsely claims that the West is planning to interfere in the elections and orchestrate a revolution. In reality, this falsehood is invented to cover up Russian interference in the elections.

At a briefing on July 9, U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller responded to Russia's accusations, calling them "completely false" and "absurd". He also noted that Russia itself occupies 20% of Georgia's territory and makes these absurd accusations against another country.

As the elections draw nearer, statements about "Western interference" are likely to become even more intense, with the backdrop of active "Russian interference" unfolding.