Georgia Plunges into Political Crisis Following Disputed Election Results
By Malkhaz Matsaberidze
Monday, November 4, 2024
The 2024 parliamentary elections in Georgia were marked by a referendum-like significance. As with many previous post-Soviet elections in Georgia, they were hailed as crucial for the country's future-sometimes justifiably so, other times exaggeratedly. This time, however, nearly everyone agreed that the October 26 election was not merely a typical vote but a defining moment that would shape the nation's foreign and domestic policies for years to come.
The ruling party, Bidzina Ivanishvili's Georgian Dream, which has held power for 12 years, faced off against pro-Western forces represented by four opposition entities - formed around the United National Movement, For the People, Lelo, and Giorgi Gakharia's party. These opposition groups hoped to cross the 5% threshold needed to challenge the ruling party and form a coalition government. Meanwhile, Georgian Dream sought a constitutional majority to execute a controversial agenda that included distancing Georgia from the West and potentially realigning it with Russia. Their campaign focused on policies like prosecuting pro-Western forces, preventing the so-called "second front" narrative, declaring Orthodox Christianity the state religion, and claiming to restore territorial integrity, despite the unlikelihood of Russian cooperation.
In contrast, the opposition promised a pro-Western path, as outlined in a charter proposed by President Salome Zourabichvili. This document, signed by the opposition, pledged to repeal undemocratic laws, fulfil EU conditions, and lead Georgia back to genuine democratic processes.
However, the aftermath of the elections thrust Georgia into a deep political crisis. The official results, which declared "Georgian Dream" as the winner with 54% of the vote, were immediately contested by the opposition, who accused the ruling party of total election fraud and power usurpation. Initially, exit polls had led opposition parties to celebrate a supposed victory, with discussions about a coalition government already underway. But when the Central Election Commission (CEC) announced that the Georgian Dream had won decisively, ruling party supporters celebrated, leaving the opposition disoriented yet resolute by the next morning, armed with allegations of election irregularities and claims of systemic fraud.
"Georgian Dream" dismissed the protests as mere posturing, drawing parallels to the 2020 elections, when initial opposition boycotts ultimately dissipated, allowing the ruling party to hold onto power. However, this time, the circumstances differ drastically. One significant change is President Zourabichvili's stance; she declared the elections fraudulent, a move she had refrained from making in 2020. Standing with her were representatives from the four main opposition coalitions, all rejecting the results.
Western observers and politicians have also reacted more critically than in 2020. Back then, leaders like Charles Michel actively sought to mediate, encouraging collaboration with the Georgian Dream. But this time, Western leaders appear sceptical of the Georgian Dream's commitment to Euro-Atlantic integration. Just four days after the election, the European Union announced a suspension of integration efforts with Georgia, citing failed EU criteria and poorly conducted elections.
According to the constitution, the president must convene the newly elected parliament within ten days of finalising results, but Zourabichvili has declared her refusal, citing fraudulent practices. She, along with the opposition, is calling for an investigation into these alleged violations and demanding new elections overseen by an international administration, as they no longer trust the "Georgian Dream"-controlled CEC.
In response, Georgian Dream has proposed a local investigation into these claims, summoning President Zourabichvili for questioning-a move seen by many as signalling a biased investigation. The opposition, in turn, has no faith in a domestic inquiry and insists on an international investigation, which "Georgian Dream" rejects.
In the meantime, "Georgian Dream" remains resolute in its stance that the elections were legitimate, and it does not plan to reassess the results. With 89 of the 150 seats, they theoretically hold a quorum to form a parliament even if the president and opposition refuse to convene it. This "self-convening" plan would allow the ruling party to validate the parliament's authority, disregarding opposition claims. They also hope that eventually some opposition members will relent and enter parliament, lending it a semblance of legitimacy.
The looming constitutional crisis is further complicated by Zourabichvili's term ending in November. The next president will be selected not by popular vote but by an electoral college, primarily composed of local government representatives dominated by the Georgian Dream. Rumours have already circulated that Ivanishvili himself might be nominated for the presidency - a prospect likely to trigger even larger waves of protest and further destabilise an already fragile political landscape.
Georgia now stands at a crossroads, its future suspended between two opposing visions: one aligned with Western values, the other inching closer to Russia. The stakes of the October 26 election were high, and with both sides entrenched in their positions, Georgia's path forward remains uncertain, with the possibility of mass protests and prolonged political unrest on the horizon.