Post-Election Uncertainty in Georgia: Tensions Rise Amid Legitimacy Challenges

By Malkhaz Matsaberidze

Monday, November 18, 2024

Following the October 26 parliamentary elections, Georgian Dream is occupied with ensuring the legitimacy of the election results and convening the new parliament. Meanwhile, the pro-Western opposition seeks to have the election results declared fraudulent and push for new parliamentary elections. This state of affairs cannot persist indefinitely, and greater clarity is expected by early December.

Georgian Dream faces the challenge of securing domestic and international recognition of the declared results of the October 26 parliamentary elections-its fourth victory in elections. Let's begin with the issue of domestic legitimacy. All four pro-Western political blocs that surpassed the 5% electoral threshold unanimously refuse to enter parliament. President Salome Zourabichvili, meanwhile, is reluctant to convene the new parliament, which she is obliged to do. Georgian Dream sees no issue with this and plans to convene the 11th Parliament on its own.

According to the electoral code, within 10 days of the CEC's summary of the election results, the first session of the newly elected parliament must be held. In other words, the last possible date for the first session of the 11th Parliament is December 1. On that day, Georgian Dream's 89 parliamentarians are expected to enter the parliament building and validate the legitimacy of at least 100 parliamentary seats. Only after this can the opposition withdraw its lists, as they have declared since election day. Even if this happens and the opposition continues to boycott the new parliament, Georgian Dream believes the parliament's assembly will still be legitimate and will proceed to function, even with an incomplete composition.

The pro-Western opposition has gathered evidence of electoral fraud and has shared these materials with Western diplomats and parliamentarians. This effort appears to have been effective, as democratic countries have been slow to congratulate Georgian Dream on its election victory.

Meanwhile, the opposition kicked off mass protests, aiming to challenge and annul the declared results of the October 26 elections through this course of action. A critical date for these protests will be Georgian Dream's attempt to hold the first session of the new parliament.It is likely that the opposition will coordinate a major protest on this day, attempting to block access to the parliament building and prevent deputies from entering. In such a scenario, Georgian Dream is expected to use force, drawing on their prior experience during the adoption of the "Russian Law".

Should events unfold this way, Georgian Dream could accuse the opposition of attempting a coup and arrest some of its leaders. This aligns with statements made by Bidzina Ivanishvili during the election campaign, where he threatened to ban the pro-Western opposition, labelling them collectively as the United National Movement, and pledged to prosecute the leaders of these parties. During the same period, Ivanishvili characterised the Rose Revolution as a Western-backed coup. However, Georgian Dream might avoid such a confrontation by quietly scheduling the first session of the new parliament and concluding it swiftly before the opposition can gather enough protesters outside.

Experts believe the opposition is unlikely to prevent the assembly of the new parliament or replicate anything resembling the Rose Revolution. Moreover, Georgian Dream hopes that once the parliament convenes, opposition MPs will gradually abandon their boycott, either individually or as entire parties, as happened in 2020. However, the current situation differs significantly from then. At that time, the West acknowledged the elections as legitimate and pressured the opposition to join parliament. Today, the United States and European Union countries are questioning the election results and emphasising the need for an investigation into violations.

On November 6, high-ranking European officials, united under the Friends of Georgia group, released a joint statement calling for the creation of a commission to investigate election violations. They also demanded sanctions against Bidzina Ivanishvili, government officials, and political leaders responsible for Georgia's democratic backsliding.

The Georgian Dream's main hope now lies in Donald Trump. Irakli Kobakhidze congratulated Trump on his win and spoke of the need to "reset" relations with Georgia. Georgian Dream anticipates that Trump will end the war in Ukraine in Russia's favour, thereby excusing Georgia's current government for its pro-Russian policies and allowing their continuation without objection.

Contrary to these expectations, pro-Western opposition leaders have repeatedly stated that Georgian Dream's hopes regarding Trump are baseless and that they will soon realise this.

Those with a more sceptical outlook suggest that even in the face of complete Western isolation and sanctions, Georgian Dream would remain defiant, ramp up anti-Western propaganda, and openly align itself with Russia. Russian officials have already signalled their willingness to strengthen ties with Georgia.

The opposition remains optimistic that mass demonstrations will disrupt Georgian Dream's Plans, block the convening of the new parliament, and force the announcement of new elections. Whether these efforts will succeed will become clear in the near future.